Thursday, January 2, 2014

Can Johnny Football Survive in the NFL

Johnny Manziel continues to dazzle on Saturdays for the Texas A&M Aggies. In his two seasons as the starting quarterback he has set records for offensive production, all while joining the toughest conference in all of college football, the SEC. As a first year starter, after red shirting his freshman year behind current Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Manziel took the nation by storm with his highlight reel playmaking ability. He handely broke the SEC total yards record set by Cam Newton three years earlier during his own Heisman winning season, becoming the first freshman to win a Heisman, and turned around a mediocre football team into a team that was capable of challenging for a national championship. And he did all of this without the help of a defense, which forced him into shootouts against some of the best defenses in the country. But the question still remains, will it translate to the pros?

Playing for a team that consistently allowed the opposition to score with moderate ease naturally bloated most of Manziel's stats. Finding themselves down often he was forced to make a lot of big plays rather then being able to rely on a balanced attack that would hold onto secured leads. And with the ability to pick a handful of subpar teams for the early games in the season, he was able to destroy bad teams and pad his stats.

The concern came, both seasons, against LSU. The Tigers are a team with a plethora of NFL caliber talent on the defensive side of the ball, more so then any other team that Manziel's Aggies faced in his two years in school. Both games against LSU were his worst game of his career. This season Texas A&M was average over 500 ypg and close to 50 ppg heading into the LSU matchup, they left Death Valley with a 34 to 10 loss that looked a lot uglier then the final score shows. Johnny Football was a dismal 16 for 41 passing with 2 interceptions while taking 2 sacks.

He relies on his speed and ability to escape pressure in order to make big plays out of blown coverages by the defense. However, when faced with a defense faster then any he has seen prior, he shrunk to the challenge and his numbers reflect it. While LSU may be the toughest and fastest defense he has played, they are nothing compared to the fast paced hard hitting NFL defenses he will be pitted against in the future. And at, generously, 6'1 and 205 pounds, with his playing style of holding onto the ball until the very last second, he could have a very short career.

And that is my other concern, while you can stumble into great plays against talented but undisciplined kids in college, he won't be able to make those same plays at the next level. He will take too many hits and throw too many ill-advised passes because in his mind he is a super star and nothing can stop him.

Statistically, and in terms of playing style he compares very favorably to Doug Flutie who managed to have a long 12 year career as a 5'10 mobile quarterback. Both won a Heisman, both made some of the most iconic plays in the history of the sport. Flutie wasn't drafted until the 11th round of the 1985 draft a year after winning the award for best college player in the country, Manziel is being talked about as a potential #1 overall pick.

Manziel received his fame to early, and let it get to his head, constantly being in the news for drunken antics and fights at parties, all while underage. He thinks he is untouchable, and is constantly given second chances and having the rules altered for him or seeing his coaches turn a blind eye. It may have worked for him in college, but when he tries to take the corner on his first scrambling pass attempt in the NFL and gets lit up by a 340 pound behemoth, the question will be how many more of those hits can he take before it kills him.


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