Friday, January 3, 2014

Is the Cutlet really worth it?

I have two sets of numbers for you.  The first is 1 and 1  in the playoffs over 8 years, and the second is $153 million with $54 million guaranteed. Those are Jay Cutler's career playoff record, and the terms of his brand new contract. Cutler has a career record of 56 and 48, a measly 8 games over .500. He has 137 combined turnovers and over 200 sacks compared to his 155 career touchdown passes.



Many experts consider him a top 10 quarterback in the NFL; but when compared to arguably the best quarterback in the game, Tom Brady, his numbers are disgustingly awful. And the worst part is that for his last 6 years he's had one of the top 5 defenses in the NFL. He wins a respectable amount of games but he can never manage to get over the hump and really cement his name as a top flight NFL quarterback. In any other line of work, he would be lucky just to keep his job; so since when has mediocrity and substandard performance warranted outlandish pay raises?

The top 5 contracts in the NFL belong to 4 of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league, and Joe Flacco. But the one thing all 5 of those guys have in common is a Lombardi Trophy. The next two largest contracts belong to Tony Romo and one Jay Cutler. One guy spends all his time trying to be a scratch golfer, the other spends his time making cameo appearances on the hit show The League on FXX. And both have a knack for wasting seasons in the waining moments of the final game.

Maybe I went into the wrong profession, if I knew I could make $100 million being average at football I would have tried playing it in my youth. Yes, Cutler has one of the strongest arms in the league, but he doesn't have that killer instinct, he can't flip that switch when the game is on the line to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. If you can get paid solely on potential I should have been a millionaire years ago, but who am I to knock his hustle, more power to you Mr. Cutler you just committed highway robbery.

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NFL Wild Card Weekend: Eagles/Saints Preview

Two High Powered Offenses Face off
Another year, another exciting and unpredictable NFL Playoffs are upon us. This wild card weekend will be particularly exciting as my Philadelphia Eagles face off against the New Orleans Saints this Saturday night in Philadelphia.  Get your popcorn ready.

After beating a Romo-less Dallas Cowboys to clinch the NFC East and the #3 seed in the Conference, the Philadelphia Eagles were rewarded with a first-round match-up with one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league. And did I mention that the Eagles' defense is terrible? They're ranked dead last in the NFL against the pass, while the New Orleans Saints' passing offense is ranked 2nd. The combination of having to match up against one of the most potent offenses in the NFL and having a poorest defense nearly lead me to picking the Saints; until I was reminded of one thing.

The game will be played in PHILADELPHIA. We're in the middle of winter and nearly half of America is covered in snow at the moment! Weather will be a game-changer for Philadelphia. The forecast for Saturday's Eagles-Saints game at Lincoln Financial Field is for temperatures in the low 30s with a 60 percent chance of rain and snow showers.  This will allow the Eagles to stay competitive. Having the NFL's top-rated passer AND rusher will not hurt either.(Remember McCoy's 200+ rushing yard game in the snow earlier this year?)

Still not convinced? Let's look at the stats:

The New Orleans Saints are an indoor football team.  The record speaks for itself. As a team, the New Orleans Saints are 8-0 at home and only 3-5 on the road.  Now let's look at Brees' performance on the road this season.  Of Drew Brees' 39 touchdowns, 27 of them were thrown at HOME. Of Drew Brees' 12 interceptions on the season, 9 of them were thrown on the road. Brees just is not himself when he's away from the comforts of home; he has NEVER won a playoff game on the road. 

Look for the Philadelphia Eagles to sneak by the New Orleans Saints this weekend; TSR predicts a 31-27 victory for the Eagles.

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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Can Johnny Football Survive in the NFL

Johnny Manziel continues to dazzle on Saturdays for the Texas A&M Aggies. In his two seasons as the starting quarterback he has set records for offensive production, all while joining the toughest conference in all of college football, the SEC. As a first year starter, after red shirting his freshman year behind current Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Manziel took the nation by storm with his highlight reel playmaking ability. He handely broke the SEC total yards record set by Cam Newton three years earlier during his own Heisman winning season, becoming the first freshman to win a Heisman, and turned around a mediocre football team into a team that was capable of challenging for a national championship. And he did all of this without the help of a defense, which forced him into shootouts against some of the best defenses in the country. But the question still remains, will it translate to the pros?

Playing for a team that consistently allowed the opposition to score with moderate ease naturally bloated most of Manziel's stats. Finding themselves down often he was forced to make a lot of big plays rather then being able to rely on a balanced attack that would hold onto secured leads. And with the ability to pick a handful of subpar teams for the early games in the season, he was able to destroy bad teams and pad his stats.

The concern came, both seasons, against LSU. The Tigers are a team with a plethora of NFL caliber talent on the defensive side of the ball, more so then any other team that Manziel's Aggies faced in his two years in school. Both games against LSU were his worst game of his career. This season Texas A&M was average over 500 ypg and close to 50 ppg heading into the LSU matchup, they left Death Valley with a 34 to 10 loss that looked a lot uglier then the final score shows. Johnny Football was a dismal 16 for 41 passing with 2 interceptions while taking 2 sacks.

He relies on his speed and ability to escape pressure in order to make big plays out of blown coverages by the defense. However, when faced with a defense faster then any he has seen prior, he shrunk to the challenge and his numbers reflect it. While LSU may be the toughest and fastest defense he has played, they are nothing compared to the fast paced hard hitting NFL defenses he will be pitted against in the future. And at, generously, 6'1 and 205 pounds, with his playing style of holding onto the ball until the very last second, he could have a very short career.

And that is my other concern, while you can stumble into great plays against talented but undisciplined kids in college, he won't be able to make those same plays at the next level. He will take too many hits and throw too many ill-advised passes because in his mind he is a super star and nothing can stop him.

Statistically, and in terms of playing style he compares very favorably to Doug Flutie who managed to have a long 12 year career as a 5'10 mobile quarterback. Both won a Heisman, both made some of the most iconic plays in the history of the sport. Flutie wasn't drafted until the 11th round of the 1985 draft a year after winning the award for best college player in the country, Manziel is being talked about as a potential #1 overall pick.

Manziel received his fame to early, and let it get to his head, constantly being in the news for drunken antics and fights at parties, all while underage. He thinks he is untouchable, and is constantly given second chances and having the rules altered for him or seeing his coaches turn a blind eye. It may have worked for him in college, but when he tries to take the corner on his first scrambling pass attempt in the NFL and gets lit up by a 340 pound behemoth, the question will be how many more of those hits can he take before it kills him.


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